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Paper: Reduction in population body mass index (BMI) is predicted to reduce incidence of related chronic disease and save on health care costs in Europe, Latin America and Middle East
Date11 December 2013
Effective interventions to reduce population BMI by 1% and 5% were shown to result in significant reductions of obesity-related chronic diseases’ cases and disease-related costs in Ireland, Mexico and nine Middle-East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey). 
In all of these countries the prevalence of overweight and obesity was predicted to increase resulting in higher rates of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, strokes and obesity-related cancers. This trend is likely to put a strain on health systems with more funds required to treat the diseases. Moreover, increasing life expectancy and recent tendencies of younger onset of some of the obesity-related chronic diseases mean that more years are spent in disease state. This has an impact both on health care costs as well as costs from productivity losses. 
In our papers we used a micro-simulation model to test three possible scenarios: 
1. BMI rates continue unabated 
2. Population BMI is reduced by 1% 
3. Population BMI is reduced by 5% 
The impact of these scenarios on disease profiles in each country and on costs to health care are presented in three papers, which can be found by following the links below. 
  • Modelling

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