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Microsimulation model 

The microsimulation model is capable to dynamically model populations or their sub-groups. To date our microsimulation model was applied for the UK, Europe, the US, as well as several Latin American, Middle East and African countries. The microsimulation model can estimate the future projections of several risk factors including BMI, smoking, alcohol, salt consumption and physical inactivity. The projections can be presented by a number of indicators including geographical regions, social class, age, gender, ethnicity, income or education. The reductions in the risk factors can be quantified in terms of health as well as economic burden.

The micro-simulation operates by simulating representative individuals and deriving population statistics from Monte-Carlo methods. Members of any selected population are modelled individually from birth. In the course of the simulation individuals get older, give birth, their risk and disease profiles change. The individual growth patterns are arranged so that there is agreement with known population statistics and there is agreement with projected population statistics at selected times in the future. Non-communicable diseases are modelled by applying the latest incidence, prevalence, survival and mortality statistics. Relative risks define the relationship between a risk factor, individuals’ background characteristics and a disease.

The Economic module includes data on costs of each disease. Gains are calculating calculated in terms of costs avoided, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), quality-adjusted life years, disability-adjusted life years and life expectancy.